How Possible Is the Elimination of Viral Hepatitis? An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease from Hepatitis B and C, 1990-2019.

This study assesses the feasibility of hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) elimination using an analysis of trends of epidemiology data (1990-2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significantly changing points in the trends of Age-standardized Prevalence Rates (ASPR) and Age-standardized Mortality Rates (ASMR) and to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC) and the average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for the period. The Sociodemographic Index (SDI) was used to analyze trends between countries. The total percentage change of the ASPR (2019/1990) was -31.4% and -12.8% for HBV and HCV worldwide, respectively; the rate ratio (HBV/HCV) was 2.5. Mortality had decreased for HBV but not for HCV. The total percentage change for the ASMR (2019/1990) was -26.7% and 10.0% for HBV and HCV, respectively. While the ASMR of HBV decreased, HCV increased during this period. The percentage change in ASMR of HBV was highest in countries with high-middle SDI and lowest in countries with high SDI. For HCV, the percentage change in ASMR was highest in countries with high SDI (increase), and only in countries with low SDI did it decrease. The global HBV and HCV rates have fallen with different AAPCs associated with the SDI. Despite the advances, there is still a long way to go to achieve the 2030 elimination goals. An important challenge is related to finding a way to speed up the yearly rate at which the decline is happening.

Humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and endemic coronaviruses in urban and indigenous children in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Although anti-SARS-CoV-2 humoral immune responses and epidemiology have been extensively studied, data gaps remain for certain populations such as indigenous people or children especially in low- and middle-income countries. To address this gap, we evaluated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and humoral immunity towards the parental B.1 strain, local SARS-CoV-2 variants, and endemic coronaviruses in children from Colombia from March to April 2021. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional seroprevalence study with 80 children from Bogotá and expanded our analysis by comparing results with an independent observational study of 82 children from the Wiwa community living in the north-eastern Colombian territories. Antibody IgG titers towards SARS-CoV-2 and the endemic coronaviruses as well as ACE2 binding inhibition as a proxy for neutralization towards several SARS-CoV-2 variants were analyzed using two multiplex-based immunoassays. RESULTS: While we find seroprevalence estimates of 21.3% in children from Bogotá, seroprevalence is higher with 34.1% in Wiwa children. We observe a robust induction of antibodies towards the surface-exposed spike protein, its S1-, S2- and receptor-binding-subdomains in all SARS-CoV-2 seropositive children. Only nucleocapsid-specific IgG is significantly lower in the indigenous participants. ACE2 binding inhibition is low for all SARS-CoV-2 variants examined. We observe a dominance of NL63 S1 IgG levels in urban and indigenous children which suggests an early exposure to this respiratory virus independent of living conditions and geographic location. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity does not correlate with antibody levels towards any of the four endemic coronaviruses indicating the absence of cross-protective immunity. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, antibody titers, but in particular ACE2 binding inhibition are low within Colombian samples, requiring further investigation to determine any potential clinical significance.

Our knowledge of SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19 remains incomplete for certain populations including indigenous people and younger age groups. Here, we aim to understand the extent to which children from urban and indigenous populations of Colombia were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and the related common cold coronaviruses. By measuring antibodies, protective proteins produced by the immune system, we find higher levels of previous SARS-CoV-2 infections in indigenous children of the Wiwa community (34.1%) compared to children from urbanized Bogotá (21.3%). Antibody levels towards the common cold coronaviruses were similar in SARS-CoV-2 infected and uninfected children suggesting immune responses to one coronavirus do not automatically protect against closely-related viruses. Further, we find low levels of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in both populations. This finding warrants further investigation as it relates to reinfection risk and future vaccination strategies in these populations.

Comparative effectiveness and duration of protection of ChAdOx1, CoronaVac, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccines for symptomatic and hospitalized Mu, Delta, and Omicron: A test-negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: We carried out a study to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of homologous vaccination schedules against COVID-19, using data from mandatory information systems from Bogota, Colombia. METHODS: A test-negative case-control study in adults from Bogota (Colombia), between March 1st of 2021 and February 25th of 2022. We assess VE among symptomatic COVID-19 cases during the Mul, Delta, and Omicron predominance periods in Bogota, with controls matched by sex, age (±5 years), and date of testing (±7 days), using a case:control ratio of 1:1. We selected homologous vaccination schedules with ChAdOx1, CoronaVac, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S. VE was reported as one minus the odds ratio in adjusted conditional logistic regressions, with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: 52,913 cases were matched to controls, 16,722 for Mu, 14,094 for Delta, and 22,097 for Omicron. VE was high against COVID-19 during Mu weeks with full vaccination using the monovalent BNT162b2 (VE: 69; 95% CI, 65 to 72) vaccine and ChAdOx1 (VE: 64; 95% CI, 31 to 81) and significantly lower with CoronaVac (P < 0.001) and Ad26.COV2.S (P = 0.005). During Delta, VE against COVID-19 was higher with BNT162b2 (VE: 55; 95% CI, 51 to 58). The VE for COVID-19 cases during Omicron was higher with a booster dose of monovalent BNT162b2 (VE: 45; 95% CI, 34 to 54). The VE of primary series and booster for ChAdOx1, Ad26.COV2.S, and CoronaVac did not show protection for Omicron. CONCLUSION: Our study provides further evidence on the protective effect of mRNA vaccines for Omicron, and warrant that the duration of protection against symptomatic infection may last for only a few months.

Enhancing interventions for prevention of mother-to-child- transmission of hepatitis B virus.

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a cornerstone of efforts to support progress towards elimination of viral hepatitis. Current guidelines recommend maternal screening, antiviral therapy during the third trimester of high-risk pregnancies, universal and timely HBV birth dose vaccination, and post-exposure prophylaxis with hepatitis B immunoglobulin for selected neonates. However, serological and molecular diagnostic testing, treatment and HBV vaccination are not consistently deployed, particularly in many high endemicity settings, and models predict that global targets for reduction in paediatric incidence will not be met by 2030. In this article, we briefly summarise the evidence for current practice and use this as a basis to discuss areas in which prevention of mother-to-child transmission can potentially be enhanced. By reducing health inequities, enhancing pragmatic use of resources, filling data gaps, developing advocacy and education, and seeking consistent investment from multilateral agencies, significant advances can be made to further reduce vertical transmission events, with wide health, societal and economic benefits.

Reductions in Childhood Pneumonia Mortality After Vaccination in the United States.

BACKGROUND: We aim to estimate the magnitude of the reduction in pneumococcal pneumonia and meningitis mortality after the mass introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV)7 and PCV13 in children in the United States. METHODS: We assessed the trends in mortality rates from pneumococcal pneumonia and meningitis, in the United States between 1994 and 2017. We fitted an interrupted time-series negative binomial regression model (adjusted by trend, seasonality, PCV7/PCV13 coverage, and H. influenzae type b vaccine coverage) to estimate the counterfactual rates without vaccination. We reported a percent reduction in mortality estimates relative to the projected no-vaccination scenario, using the formula 1 minus the incidence risk ratio, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Between 1994 and 1999 (the prevaccination period), the all-cause pneumonia mortality rate for 0-1-month-old children was 2.55 per 100,00 pop., whereas for 2-11 months-old children, this rate was 0.82 deaths per 100,000 pop. During the PCV7-period in 0-59-month-old children in the United States, the adjusted reduction of all-cause pneumonia was 13% (95% CI: 4-21) and 19% (95% CI: 0-33) of all-cause meningitis For PCV13, the reductions in this age group were 21% (95% CI: 4-35) for all-cause pneumonia mortality and 22% (95% CI: -19 to 48) for all-cause meningitis mortality. PCV13 had greater reductions of all-cause pneumonia than PCV13 in 6-11-month-old infants. CONCLUSIONS: The universal introduction of PCV7, and later PCV13, for children 0-59 months old in the United States was associated with decreases in mortality due to all-cause pneumonia.

Seroprevalence of Hepatitis E virus in children and adolescents living in urban Bogotá: An explorative cross-sectional study.

The majority of Hepatitis E Virus (HEV)-related studies are carried out in adults whereas information about HEV seroprevalence, clinical disease manifestation, molecular epidemiology, and transmission patterns in children is limited. To estimate HEV seroprevalence among scholar children living in an urban setting and to analyze risk factors for an infection, we invited children aged 5-18 years from Bogotá (Colombia) for a cross-sectional survey. We collected self-reported data on demographics, social, clinical, and exposure variables in a structured interview. Venous blood samples were analyzed with two commercially available ELISAs for HEV-specific IgG antibodies. Among the 263 participants, we found three HEV IgG-reactive samples (1.1%) using both assays. We additionally characterized the samples for HEV IgM using a commercially available IgM ELISA and for HEV RNA. Here, we found one IgM-reactive sample, which was also reactive for IgG. In contrast, none of the IgM- and IgG-reactive sera samples showed detectable RNA levels indicating HEV exposure had not been recently. All participants reported access to drinking water and sanitary systems in their households and frequent hand washing routines (76-88%). Eighty percent of children reported no direct contact with pigs, but occasional pork consumption was common (90%). In contrast to the majority of studies performed in Colombian adults, we found a low unadjusted HEV seroprevalence of 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3-3.6%) for both HEV IgG ELISAs in our study population. While the majority of participants reported pork consumption, we speculate in the absence of viral RNA for genotyping in the affected individuals, that existing access to drinking water and sanitary systems within our study group contribute to the low HEV seroprevalence.

Inteligencia artificial en medicina y procedimientos quirúrgicos: impacto en la toma de decisiones y la salud / Artificial Intelligence in Medicine and Surgical Procedures: Impact on Decision Making and Health

Introducción: Las revisiones sistemáticas de la literatura constituyen una herramienta metodológica práctica para la búsqueda de información sobre investigaciones clínicas, aplicaciones tecnológicas y la toma de decisiones de impacto en la salud. Objetivo: Describir cómo influye la inteligencia artificial en la toma de decisiones médicas según el grado de concordancia entre estas evidencias y los sistemas expertos aplicados en las especialidades clínicas y quirúrgicas de impacto en la salud, según reportes entre 2010 y 2019. Métodos: Se realizó una revisión sistemática con el uso de un modelo de bases de datos relacional y un modelo de entidad relación para garantizar la entidad referencial de la que hacen parte las bases de datos y los artículos, así como la calidad de cada uno de los artículos mediante clasificación por grados de concordancia entre muy concordante o no concordante con la temática de interés y la toma de decisiones de impacto en la salud. Conclusiones: Las aplicaciones como los sistemas expertos, los aprendizajes de máquinas y la robótica aportan innovación a las instituciones y un cambio revolucionario en lo académico, clínico y epidemiológico(AU)

Introduction: Systematic reviews of the literature constitute a practical methodological tool for the search of information on clinical research, technological applications and health impact decision-making. Objectives: To describe how artificial intelligence influences medical decision-making according to the degree of agreement between this evidence and the expert systems applied in clinical and surgical specialties with an impact on health, according to reports from 2010 to 2019. Methods: A systematic review was conducted with the use of a relational database model and a relationship entity model to guarantee the referential entity of which the databases and articles are part, as well as the quality of each of the articles classified by degrees of agreement between very concordant or not concordant with the topic of interest and the decision making of impact on health. Conclusions: Applications such as expert systems, machine learning and robotics bring innovation to institutions and a revolutionary change in academic, clinical and epidemiological areas(AU)

How Expensive Are Hospitalizations by COVID-19? Evidence From Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the direct medical costs due to hospitalizations by COVID-19 in Colombia and to identify their cost drivers in Colombia. METHODS: This is a retrospective cost-of-illness study of COVID-19 in Colombia. We estimated direct medical costs using data from patients insured to a Benefit Plan Administrator Company, between March 15, 2020 and May 29, 2020. Absolute and relative frequencies, averages, medians, and interquartile ranges (IQRs) were used to characterize the population and estimate the costs of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We stratified the cost analysis by sex, age groups, comorbidities, and type of hospitalization (general ward and intensive care unit [ICU]). Cost drivers were calculated from a generalized linear model. RESULTS: We studied 113 confirmed patients, 51.3% men. On average, the hospital length of stay was 7.3 (± 6.2) days. A person hospitalized with COVID-19 reported median costs of $1688 (IQR 788-2523). In women, this cost was $1328 (IQR 463-2098); in men, this was 1.4 times greater. The median cost for ICU was $4118 (IQR 2069-5455), 3 times higher than those hospitalized only in the general ward. Admission to the ICU, having 1 comorbidity, length of stay, high blood pressure, having 5 comorbidities, and being treated in the city of Cartagena were statistically significant with direct medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides an idea of the magnitude of costs needed to hospitalize a COVID-19 case in Colombia. Other studies in Colombia have assessed the costs of hospitalization for infectious diseases such as influenza, costs significantly lower than those described here.

Progress towards the elimination of hepatitis B in children in Colombia: A novel two-phase study approach.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has established a target to eliminate mother-to-child-transmission (EMTCT) of hepatitis B virus (HBV), defined as a prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) of ≤0.1% among children, by 2030. Using nationally representative serosurveys to verify achievement of this target requires large sample sizes and significant resources. We assessed the feasibility of a potentially more efficient two-phase method to verify EMTCT of HBV in Colombia. In the first phase, we conducted a risk assessment to identify municipalities at the highest risk of ongoing HBV transmission. We ranked the 1122 municipalities of Colombia based on the reports of HBV infection in pregnant women per 1000 population. Municipalities with ≥0.3 reports per 1000 persons (equating to the top quartile) were further assessed based on health facility birth rates, coverage with three doses of hepatitis B vaccine (HepB3) and seroprevalence data. Hepatitis B risk was considered to be further increased for municipalities with HepB3 coverage or health facility birth rate <90%. In the second phase, we conducted a multistage household serosurvey of children aged 5-10 years in 36 municipalities with the highest assessed HBV risk. HBsAg was not detected in any of 3203 children tested, yielding a 90% upper confidence bound of <0.1% prevalence. Coverage with HepB3 and hepatitis B birth dose was high at 97.5% and 95.6%, respectively. These results support the conclusion that Colombia has likely achieved EMTCT of HBV.

Criteria for New Vaccine Introduction in a National Expanded Program on Immunization: A Survey of Expanded Program on Immunization Managers.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to critically review the decision-making (DM) processes for new vaccines introduction in Latin America's Expanded Program on Immunization (EPIs) and role of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). METHODS: An online survey was conducted between August and December 2019 to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) EPI managers, participants of the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (NITAG). Information about criteria to introduce the most recent vaccine was asked. CEA role in that decision and technical knowledge of informants were investigated. Frequencies of categorical data were calculated. Bar plots and stacked bar plots were used to visualize the data. RESULTS: A total of 26 EPI managers and stakeholders participated in the survey from 14 LAC countries. Respondents worked at the Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization. Most recent vaccines included were human papillomavirus (42.3%), injectable polio (26.9%), and varicella (15.4%). High burden of disease and cost-effectiveness/cost-utility were identified as the main a priori criteria used to new vaccine introduction, but not all inputs are available or good quality. Discussion about vaccine introduction was conducted at NITAG meetings, reported as independent by most countries. Nevertheless, NITAG members did not master the essential CEAs concepts. CONCLUSIONS: DM of vaccine introduction in LAC is reported by EPI managers as a process of discussion with participation of several actors where economic rationalities had a high role in the decision. It is necessary to strengthen the technical capacity to understand economical inputs to inform DM and advocate to include other rationalities as important in the discussion.

Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a Symptoms-Based model to aid public health decision making in Latin America and other low and middle income settings.

Symptoms-based models for predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection may improve clinical decision-making and be an alternative to resource allocation in under-resourced settings. In this study we aimed to test a model based on symptoms to predict a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection during the COVID-19 pandemic using logistic regression and a machine-learning approach, in Bogotá, Colombia. Participants from the CoVIDA project were included. A logistic regression using the model was chosen based on biological plausibility and the Akaike Information criterion. Also, we performed an analysis using machine learning with random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting. The study included 58,577 participants with a positivity rate of 5.7%. The logistic regression showed that anosmia (aOR = 7.76, 95% CI [6.19, 9.73]), fever (aOR = 4.29, 95% CI [3.07, 6.02]), headache (aOR = 3.29, 95% CI [1.78, 6.07]), dry cough (aOR = 2.96, 95% CI [2.44, 3.58]), and fatigue (aOR = 1.93, 95% CI [1.57, 2.93]) were independently associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our final model had an area under the curve of 0.73. The symptoms-based model correctly identified over 85% of participants. This model can be used to prioritize resource allocation related to COVID-19 diagnosis, to decide on early isolation, and contact-tracing strategies in individuals with a high probability of infection before receiving a confirmatory test result. This strategy has public health and clinical decision-making significance in low- and middle-income settings like Latin America.

Substantial Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure on Prenatal Check-Ups: Estimates from a Sample of Pregnant Women in Cartagena, Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures and the indirect costs related to prenatal check-ups in pregnant women seen in a maternity hospital in the Colombian Caribbean region. METHODS: We described the economic costs of pregnant women, with no age limits, who attended prenatal check-ups in a maternity hospital. To estimate OOP and indirect costs owing to prenatal check-ups in pregnant women, a survey was constructed, where the woman was asked about some sociodemographic variables, to characterize those attending the prenatal check-ups. Absolute and relative frequencies, averages and confidence intervals were used to characterize the population and estimate OOP and indirect costs in pregnant women. The latter were estimated from the percentile method. A bootstrapping was performed to reduce the bias within the analysis. RESULTS: In total, 56 pregnant women were surveyed, with an average age of 25.9 years (±6.2). All women surveyed had OOP associated to the prenatal check-up in at least one cost-item, and the OOP ranged between $0.3 and $108.7. Transportation was the item with the highest frequency of expenses, followed by food, other expenses, and drugs. The mean of OOP expenditures was $24.3 (CI 95% $18.1-31.4) for women who attended their prenatal check-up. DISCUSSION: Considering the estimated OOP health expenditures caused by prenatal check-ups by household income, women living with <1 minimum wage spend 7% of their income in a prenatal check-up. In women with 1-2 and >2-3 minimum wages, these proportions were 5%, 3%, respectively. Unfortunately, this makes prenatal care a significant source of economic burden, impacting poor households in Cartagena.

Public health education in Colombia: influence on public policies.

Colombia has a tradition on Public Health education since the mid years of 1950's. The first cohorts of Public Health academics and workers were trained at the National School of Public Health, which was established, with the support of the Rockefeller Foundation, at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia in Bogota, but later moved to the Universidad de Antioquia in Medellin. In the current context, Colombian Public Health academics have rallied against the neoliberal Health Reform implanted in 1993 that has failed to address the country's health priorities. Most of the interactions between Public Health academic leaders with government and other decision makers, revolve around the discussion on whether a new way to conceptualize and operate the national health system should be visualized and implemented. So far, the academic sector have been unable to overthrow the main aspects of the Reform -private insurance companies operating, and profiting, on public money- but they have demonstrated how inequalities in health access have widening under the Health Reform and how it have been unable to improve the health situation of the population.

Impact of mobility restrictions on the dynamics of transmission of COVID-19 in Colombian cities.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to study the association between case rates and reductions in urban mobility in state capitals of Colombia. METHODS: We designed an ecological time-series study to correlate the Colombian incidence rate with reductions in mobility trends of retail stores. RESULTS: The meta-analysis of ß coefficients describing the association between case rates and reductions in mobility trends of retail stores resulted in a mean estimate of 0.0637 (95% confidence interval 0.027 to 0.101; p<0.001) with nearly 100% heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend continuing to consider mobility restrictions when the number of cases starts to climb in each local jurisdiction.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection among School Population of One Developing Country. Do School Closures Protect Students and Teachers against SARS-CoV-2 Infection?

Evidence about the effectiveness of school closures as a measure to control the spread of COVID-19 is controversial. We posit that schools are not an important source of transmission; thus, we analyzed two surveillance methods: a web-based questionnaire and a telephone survey that monitored the impact of the pandemic due to COVID-19 cases in Bogotá, Colombia. We estimated the cumulative incidences for Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) and COVID-19 for each population group. Then, we assessed the differences using the cumulative incidence ratio (CIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI95%). The ARI incidence among students was 20.1 times higher when estimated from the telephone survey than from the online questionnaire (CIR: 20.1; CI95% 17.11-23.53). Likewise, the ARI incidence among schoolteachers was 10 times higher in the telephone survey (CIR: 9.8; CI95% 8.3-11.5). the incidence of COVID-19 among schoolteachers was 4.3 times higher than among students in the online questionnarie (CIR: 4.3, CI95%: 3.8-5.0) and 2.1 times higher in the telephone survey (CIR = 2.1, CI95%: 1.8-2.6), and this behavior was also observed in the general population data. Both methods showed a capacity to detect COVID-19 transmission among students and schoolteachers, but the telephone survey estimates were probably closer to the real incidence rate.

Centers of Excellence Implementation for Treating Rheumatoid Arthritis in Colombia: A Cost-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Health systems need to optimize the use of resources, especially in high-cost diseases as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We aimed to evaluate the efficiency of using centers of excellence (CoE) as a strategy for improving RA treatment in Colombia. METHODS: A cost description analysis was carried out using the standard costing technique. We estimated the costs of medical consultations, laboratories, images, and medications for RA. Categories of care standards stratified by severity were defined using the disease activity score in 28 joints (DAS28). We evaluated the impact, in terms of costs (US dollars), for providing RA clinical care for a previously described cohort using the CoE approach. Statistical analyses were performed in Microsoft Excel®, and R. RESULTS: Expenditure on therapeutic drugs increases as the severity of RA increases. Drugs represent 53.6% of the total cost for the low disease activity (LDA) stage, 75.2% for moderate disease activity (MDA), 88.5% for severe disease activity (SDA) and 97% for SDA with biologic treatment (SDA+Biologic). Treating 968 patients would cost US$612,639 (US$487,978-1,220,160) at baseline, per year. After a year of follow-up at the CoE, treating the same patients would cost US$388,765 (US$321,710-708,476), which implies potential cost-savings of up to US$223,874 per year. CONCLUSION: The strategy of providing clinical care for RA through CoE can save US$231.3 per patient-per year. The results of our study show that CoE could greatly impact the public policies dealing with treatment of RA in Colombia. Applying the CoE model in our country would both improve health outcomes, as well as being more efficient in terms of costs.

Using serological studies to assess COVID-19 infection fatality rate in developing countries: A case study from one Colombian department.

This study describe the infection fatality rate (IFR) by COVID-19 by age groups in one department of Colombia. It used results from a serological survey to stablish a closer estimation of the true proportion of infected people. It found an overall IFR of 0.24% quite lower than the overall CFR (5.6%). We conclude that CFR severely overestimate the lethality of COVID-19 in developing areas.